Is the Crypto Bull Run Over Already?

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The crypto world is buzzing with a pressing question: Is the bull run over already? While Bitcoin’s recent price action has strayed from its usual post-halving patterns, deeper market indicators suggest the rally may still have legs. Despite short-term volatility and cooling speculation, key metrics like stablecoin market capitalization and on-chain activity reveal a market that’s consolidating—not collapsing.

This article dives into the data behind the current cycle, explores why this bull run feels different, and unpacks what rising stablecoin supply and resilient decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes really mean for the future of crypto.

Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Trajectory: A New Pattern Emerges

Bitcoin remains the heartbeat of the cryptocurrency market. Its price behavior often sets the tone for altcoins and broader sentiment. Historically, Bitcoin enters a strong upward phase 12 to 18 months after each halving event—typically peaking around that window.

In this cycle, the halving occurred in April 2024, which would place the expected peak sometime between mid-2025 and early 2026. However, Bitcoin’s price has not followed its usual post-halving surge pattern. Instead, it has shown increased volatility and a slower ascent, leading many to speculate that the bull run might be fizzling out prematurely.

But appearances can be deceiving.

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While historical models suggest a predictable arc, today’s market is shaped by far more than just supply scarcity. Institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic forces are now major players. For example:

These factors mean that traditional cycle analysis—while still useful—must be updated to reflect a maturing asset class. Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative tech experiment; it’s increasingly seen as a global macro asset integrated into mainstream finance.

Even if price gains aren’t as explosive as in 2017 or 2021, the underlying adoption is deeper and more sustainable. That doesn’t signal the end of the bull run—it may instead point to a more prolonged, institutional-grade rally.

Stablecoin Surge: Hidden Liquidity Fueling the Next Leg

One of the most telling signs that the bull run may still be alive is the explosive growth in stablecoin market capitalization. From $146 billion in March 2024, the total stablecoin supply has climbed to **$217 billion**—a 48.6% increase in just one year.

Why does this matter?

Stablecoins like USDT and USDC act as the on-ramp liquidity for crypto markets. When investors buy stablecoins, they’re often preparing to deploy capital into riskier assets like Bitcoin or altcoins. A rising stablecoin supply typically precedes bullish momentum.

“The growth of the stablecoin market cap indicates a massive capital rotation within the crypto ecosystem,” says Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC. “Investors are moving away from volatility while keeping their capital on-chain—ready to re-enter when opportunities arise.”

This behavior suggests that money hasn’t left the market; it’s just waiting on the sidelines in stable form. The fact that large players—including institutional investors and even sovereign wealth funds—are using stablecoins for major transactions reinforces this view.

For instance, Abu Dhabi’s MGX recently invested $2 billion in Binance using stablecoins—a landmark moment that underscores how deeply embedded stablecoins have become in high-stakes financial operations.

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This isn’t just about speculation. It’s about infrastructure maturation. Stablecoins are now the backbone of DeFi, cross-border payments, and on-chain settlements. Their growth reflects not just investor confidence but also real utility and adoption.

DEX Volumes Correct—But Activity Remains Strong

Decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes surged dramatically in late 2024, peaking at an all-time high of $48.5 billion on January 17, 2025**. Since then, daily volume has pulled back to around **$6 billion—a significant drop on the surface.

But context is critical.

Even at current levels, DEX volume remains 70–80% of the average seen during the 2021–2022 bull run. This means that despite the correction, on-chain trading activity is still historically high. It’s not a collapse—it’s a cooldown after a speculative frenzy.

This pattern suggests that:

Moreover, the fact that today’s “low” volume compares favorably to previous cycle highs indicates broader participation. More wallets, more chains, and more use cases mean that even during downturns, baseline activity is higher than before.

It’s likely we’re in a re-accumulation phase, where smart money builds positions before the next leg up. Retail traders may have pulled back, but on-chain data shows whales and institutions are still active.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Has the crypto bull run ended after Bitcoin’s post-halving slowdown?
A: Not necessarily. While price growth has been slower than past cycles, key indicators like stablecoin supply and on-chain activity suggest the market is consolidating rather than reversing.

Q: Why are stablecoins rising if Bitcoin isn’t going up?
A: Rising stablecoin supply often signals that investors are holding liquidity on-chain, preparing for future entries. It reflects confidence in the ecosystem, not bearish sentiment.

Q: Do falling DEX volumes mean DeFi is losing steam?
A: No. Current DEX volumes are still near previous cycle highs. The drop follows an all-time peak and likely represents a normal market correction rather than declining interest.

Q: Can Bitcoin still reach new highs in 2025?
A: Yes. Historical trends suggest peaks 12–18 months post-halving, placing a potential top in mid-to-late 2025. Institutional demand and macro factors could drive late-cycle rallies.

Q: Are institutional investors still active in crypto?
A: Absolutely. The $2 billion stablecoin investment by Abu Dhabi’s MGX into Binance shows that major financial players continue to engage with the space.

Q: What should investors do during this consolidation phase?
A: Focus on accumulating strong projects, monitoring on-chain metrics, and preparing for volatility. This phase often precedes the next major move.

Conclusion: The Bull Run Isn’t Over—It’s Evolving

The narrative that “the bull run is over” overlooks critical fundamentals. Yes, Bitcoin hasn’t followed its textbook post-halving surge. Yes, DEX volumes have corrected sharply. But these are symptoms of maturation—not market death.

Instead, we’re seeing:

These forces suggest that while the explosive mania of early 2025 may have cooled, the underlying momentum remains strong. The bull run isn’t over—it’s transitioning into a more sustainable, institutionally driven phase.

For investors, this means opportunity lies not in chasing hype, but in understanding where real capital is flowing.

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