Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been consolidating within a narrow trading range over the past two weeks, mirroring broader altcoin market trends. Despite the sideways movement, several fundamental and technical indicators suggest a potential breakout on the horizon. With rising open interest, declining exchange reserves, and macro-level crypto tailwinds, investors are asking: Could Shiba Inu surge 45% and retest its December highs?
This article explores the key catalysts behind a potential SHIB price rally, analyzes technical patterns, and evaluates whether the momentum is strong enough to push the meme coin toward new gains in early 2025.
Key Fundamentals Supporting a Shiba Inu Price Rebound
Several underlying metrics point to growing bullish sentiment around Shiba Inu. While price action has been subdued recently, on-chain and market structure developments indicate accumulating strength.
Declining Exchange Balances Signal Stronger Holder Confidence
One of the most telling signs of investor conviction is the steady outflow of SHIB tokens from exchanges. Data shows that Shiba Inu holdings on exchanges dropped by approximately 0.6%—from 260.3 trillion to 258.7 trillion tokens—within just one week. This trend reflects a growing preference for self-custody, suggesting long-term holders are locking in their positions rather than preparing to sell.
With only 25.87% of the total supply currently held on exchanges, selling pressure remains low—a positive signal for future price stability and upward momentum.
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Rising Open Interest Hints at Futures Market Confidence
In the derivatives market, open interest for SHIB futures has climbed steadily since bottoming at $50 million in December**. It recently reached **$65.4 million, marking its highest level since December 20—indicating renewed interest from leveraged traders.
Historically, rising open interest during consolidation phases often precedes significant price moves. When combined with stable volume and declining exchange supply, this suggests that institutional and advanced traders may be positioning for an upside breakout.
Strong Burn Rate Reduces Circulating Supply
The Shiba Inu ecosystem continues to benefit from an aggressive token burn mechanism. The SHIB burn rate surged over 1500% in recent months, permanently removing millions of tokens from circulation. This deflationary pressure enhances scarcity, which can support higher valuations over time—especially if demand increases simultaneously.
Macroeconomic and Regulatory Tailwinds
Beyond internal project metrics, external factors could further boost SHIB’s price trajectory in early 2025.
The incoming U.S. administration is expected to adopt a more crypto-friendly regulatory stance, emphasizing deregulation and innovation in digital assets. This shift could lift sentiment across the entire altcoin market, including major meme coins like Shiba Inu.
Additionally, speculation around leadership changes at the SEC—particularly the potential resignation of Gary Gensler—has sparked optimism in the crypto community. A less adversarial regulatory environment could accelerate institutional adoption and increase capital inflows into high-potential assets like SHIB.
FTX creditor distributions may also inject fresh liquidity into the market, some of which could flow into speculative assets such as meme coins.
Technical Analysis: Bullish Patterns vs. Cautionary Flags
While fundamentals paint a promising picture, technical analysis reveals a mixed outlook—offering both encouragement and caution.
Support Levels Hold Firm
On the positive side, SHIB has maintained trading above the 200-day moving average, a key long-term support level widely watched by traders. This resilience suggests strong underlying demand even during market pullbacks.
Moreover, price action has respected an ascending trendline connecting the lowest points since September 2024, reinforcing the bullish structure. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stands at 2.7, indicating that SHIB remains undervalued relative to its historical cost basis—making it an attractive buy opportunity for value-focused investors.
A notable cup-and-handle-like pattern has also formed on the weekly chart, often interpreted as a bullish continuation signal. If confirmed with a breakout above resistance, this pattern could trigger a strong rally.
Potential Bearish Pennant Formation
However, caution is warranted. On shorter timeframes, SHIB appears to be forming a bearish pennant pattern, typically seen as a pause before a potential downward move. While such patterns can resolve in either direction, a breakdown below key support could invalidate the current bullish thesis.
Traders should monitor volume and momentum closely; a high-volume breakout above resistance would confirm bullish momentum, while a low-volume slide could signal weakening interest.
Shiba Inu Price Forecast: Targets and Risk Levels
Given the confluence of positive catalysts, a move toward retesting previous highs appears increasingly plausible—if momentum builds.
Bullish Scenario: 45% Upside Potential
A confirmed breakout could propel Shiba Inu toward $0.00003270, representing a 45% gain from current levels. This price point aligns with the December 2024 resistance zone and would mark a significant psychological milestone for holders.
Such a rally would likely be fueled by:
- Continued growth in open interest
- Accelerated token burns
- Broader market recovery driven by macro tailwinds
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Bearish Risk: Breakdown Could Trigger Further Decline
Conversely, if SHIB fails to hold support at $0.00001857**—its December 20 low—a bearish reversal may unfold. A close below this level could open the door to a drop toward **$0.00001192, the next major support zone.
This scenario would likely be driven by broader market weakness or negative regulatory news that dampens investor sentiment across altcoins.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: What factors are driving Shiba Inu’s potential price surge?
A: Key drivers include rising open interest in futures markets, declining exchange balances (indicating strong holding sentiment), an accelerating burn rate reducing supply, and favorable macro conditions such as anticipated regulatory shifts and FTX fund distributions.
Q: Is Shiba Inu still considered a good investment in 2025?
A: Many analysts view SHIB as undervalued based on MVRV and on-chain metrics. While it remains a speculative asset, its established ecosystem, active community, and deflationary mechanisms make it a compelling option within the meme coin sector.
Q: How does open interest affect SHIB’s price?
A: Rising open interest during consolidation often signals that traders are building positions ahead of a major move. If accompanied by increasing volume on breakout attempts, it can confirm bullish momentum and attract additional buying pressure.
Q: Can technical patterns predict SHIB’s next move?
A: Yes—patterns like the cup-and-handle suggest upside potential, while formations such as bearish pennants warn of possible pullbacks. However, no single indicator guarantees direction; traders should use multiple tools for confirmation.
Q: What should investors watch for in the coming weeks?
A: Monitor SHIB’s ability to hold above $0.00001857, sustained growth in open interest, further reductions in exchange supply, and any shifts in regulatory policy that could impact market sentiment.
Q: Could Shiba Inu reach new all-time highs in 2025?
A: While retesting December’s peak is plausible, reaching new all-time highs would require broader bull market conditions, significant ecosystem developments, or viral adoption catalysts—such as expanded utility or exchange listings.
Final Thoughts: Is a 45% Rally Within Reach?
Shiba Inu stands at a pivotal juncture. With strong fundamentals, supportive on-chain trends, and favorable macro dynamics aligning, the conditions for a 45% rally are increasingly credible. However, technical caution remains—especially with conflicting chart patterns suggesting volatility ahead.
For investors, the current consolidation phase offers a strategic entry point—but risk management is essential. Watching key support levels, open interest trends, and regulatory developments will be crucial in navigating SHIB’s next move.
Whether driven by trader sentiment, supply scarcity, or broader market momentum, Shiba Inu’s story in early 2025 could be one of resurgence.
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