Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Over?

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The cryptocurrency market has been on a rollercoaster ride. Just after the May Day holiday, Bitcoin plunged from $63,000 to around $56,000 — a staggering drop of over 9% in a single day. Yet, by May 4, it rebounded sharply, surging toward $65,000 with a remarkable intraday gain of 9.3%. While Bitcoin showed resilience, the broader altcoin market painted a grim picture, with many tokens halving in value and struggling to recover. Community enthusiasm, once buzzing just months ago, has noticeably cooled.

Has Bitcoin peaked? Is the bull market over? And what opportunities remain for everyday investors?

To unpack these pressing questions, we gathered insights from several respected crypto thought leaders:

Let’s dive into their perspectives on the current market phase, key trends, and future outlook.

🔄 Is the Bull Market Really Over?

Dashuo: "Bitcoin’s bull run may be mid-cycle — Web3’s hasn’t even started."

While Bitcoin might be entering a consolidation phase, Dashuo believes the broader Web3 ecosystem is still in its early innings. He notes that every bull cycle brings waves of pessimism, but that doesn’t mean the momentum is gone.

Laobai: "Macro fundamentals say no — rate cuts are coming."

From a macroeconomic standpoint, Laobai argues it’s too early to call an end. With interest rate cuts expected within the next 6–10 months and Bitcoin having only recently surpassed its previous all-time high, ending the narrative now would be like “cutting the boat to find a lost sword” — a Chinese idiom meaning clinging to outdated logic.

Natalie: "Sideways price action ≠ end of cycle."

Natalie acknowledges the lack of excitement in the market. Without strong new narratives or visible wealth creation, confidence is fading. However, she emphasizes that sideways movement often precedes breakout phases — it may simply be consolidation before the next leg up.

Phyrex: "Real bull market may not have started yet."

Historically, major rallies occur post-halving. Though the BTC spot ETF accelerated early momentum, Phyrex points to upcoming catalysts — U.S. elections and potential FASB regulations — that could boost liquidity by late 2025 or 2026.

👉 Discover how market cycles shape long-term investment strategies

🔍 What Makes This Cycle Different?

Dashuo: "It’s not about money or stories — it’s about mindset."

Veteran investors (“old degens”) are more cautious this time. Many are missing out on new narratives due to skepticism or fatigue — a shift from past cycles where FOMO drove participation.

Laobai: "Too many micro-innovations, not enough 0-to-1 breakthroughs."

Projects launching with billion-dollar FDVs (Fully Diluted Valuations) without real utility are overwhelming retail investors. The lack of sustainable profit opportunities is dampening engagement.

Natalie: "ETF flows are reshaping sentiment."

The introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs has fundamentally altered capital dynamics. In just four months, these funds net-purchased over 530,000 BTC — significantly reducing sell pressure. She also highlights internal shifts in the Bitcoin ecosystem as potential game-changers.

Phyrex: "ETFs changed everything."

Beyond boosting confidence, ETFs have absorbed massive supply. This structural shift means fewer coins available for trading — a bullish signal for long-term holders.

🚀 Which Sectors Are Poised to Lead?

Dashuo’s Picks:

Laobai’s Focus: AI, Bitcoin, and Gaming.

He sees convergence between AI and blockchain as inevitable, with Bitcoin maintaining its foundational role.

Natalie’s Outlook: AI, Intent-Centric Architectures, Chain Abstraction, and Bitcoin Infrastructure.

She believes reducing friction across chains and simplifying user experience will unlock broader adoption.

Phyrex on RWA & DeFi:

Despite limited compliance-grade projects today (e.g., BlackRock being a rare example), regulatory progress — especially around stablecoin legislation — could make RWA the star performer in coming years.

👉 Explore emerging blockchain sectors before they go mainstream

🔮 What’s Next for Ethereum?

Dashuo: "L2s could spark an independent rally."

With Coinbase’s Base chain gaining traction, Ethereum’s Layer 2 strategy is proving viable. He predicts more enterprises will launch custom L2s — a development he considers more impactful than an ETH ETF. A surge could follow if EigenLayer’s AVS ecosystem hits $3B+ market cap.

Laobai: "Needs external catalysts."

Without an ETF or fresh narrative, Ethereum remains stagnant. External capital inflows are essential for a breakout.

Natalie: "Still the innovation hub."

Despite lower trading volume and flippening debates (“Will X overtake Ethereum?”), Ethereum remains central to developer activity. Exciting proposals like Based rollups, ePBS, and account abstraction EIPs continue to evolve the network.

Phyrex: "ETH/BTC ratio still holds potential."

Uncertainty around whether SEC will classify ETH as a security lingers. But technically, Ethereum still has upside potential relative to Bitcoin.

🧭 Advice for Newcomers: How to Navigate Today’s Market

Dashuo: "Reduce noise — switch from X to Farcaster."

Social media overload distorts perception. He recommends migrating to decentralized platforms like Farcaster for higher-signal information.

Laobai: "Either go long on BTC/ETH or become an expert."

Market complexity is increasing — a sign of maturation. Beginners should either adopt a passive strategy (long-term holding) or commit deeply to learning.

Phyrex: "Dollar-cost average into BTC — no leverage, no strategies."

Stick to simple BTC dollar-cost averaging over a 4-year cycle. Discipline beats timing.

Natalie: "Learn during calm periods."

With low gas fees and reduced FOMO, now is ideal for mastering on-chain operations and DeFi mechanics without pressure.

📅 Long-Term Outlook: 2025 to 2035

Dashuo: "Onchain is the new online."

This quote from Coinbase’s founder encapsulates his vision — blockchain will become the default layer for digital interaction.

Laobai: "We need real utility beyond speculation."

After a decade, crypto remains niche outside Bitcoin. His hope? That DeFi, GameFi, DePIN, or AI will finally deliver tangible value — moving beyond “market dream rates” (市梦率).

Natalie: "Underestimate short-term impact, overestimate long-term potential."

She remains bullish on blockchain’s trajectory. Her focus: seamless cross-chain experiences and lowering barriers to entry.

Phyrex: "Liquidity expansion delayed until 2025–2026."

With the Fed holding rates steady, quantitative easing likely won’t resume until 2025 or 2026 — setting the stage for the next macro-driven surge.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Has Bitcoin already peaked in this cycle?
A: Not necessarily. While short-term volatility is high, key fundamentals like ETF inflows and post-halving cycles suggest we may still be in a mid-phase consolidation rather than a top.

Q: Are altcoins dead?
A: No — but they’re under pressure. Without strong narratives or institutional backing like BTC enjoys, many altcoins face prolonged stagnation unless they deliver real utility.

Q: Should I sell my crypto amid the downturn?
A: Timing the market is risky. For most investors, holding through volatility or using dollar-cost averaging yields better long-term results than emotional selling.

Q: Is now a good time to start investing?
A: Yes — especially for beginners. Lower prices and reduced hype create ideal conditions for learning and accumulating assets at better valuations.

Q: Will Ethereum ever outperform Bitcoin again?
A: It’s possible. If ETH ETFs are approved or major upgrades (like full sharding) go live, capital could rotate back into Ethereum.

Q: What’s the safest way to participate in this market?
A: Focus on established assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Avoid leverage, diversify cautiously, and prioritize education over quick gains.

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