The Stellar (XLM) price has shown early signs of stabilization following a challenging June, as market sentiment begins to shift amid growing on-chain activity. After a prolonged descent that saw XLM drop nearly 28% from its mid-May peak, the asset is now attempting to reclaim key support levels. As of late June 2025, XLM trades around $0.238, consolidating within a narrowing range — a potential precursor to a significant breakout.
Despite lackluster price performance and a shrinking market cap in the first half of 2025, critical on-chain metrics are painting an increasingly optimistic picture. Total Value Locked (TVL) across Stellar-based decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols has surged, investor sentiment is turning positive, and active user engagement is climbing. These developments suggest that behind the scenes, confidence in the Stellar ecosystem is building — even as broader market conditions remain cautious.
Notably, Scopuly, a leading DeFi wallet built on the Stellar network, recently signaled growing momentum by announcing that “the time for a breakout has arrived,” projecting a potential target of $0.46. This bold forecast aligns with emerging technical and on-chain trends, fueling speculation that XLM may be poised for a meaningful rally.
Bullish On-Chain Indicators Point to Potential XLM Price Surge
One of the most compelling signs of renewed interest in Stellar is the dramatic rise in Total Value Locked (TVL). According to DefiLlama, TVL on the Stellar network has climbed to approximately $86.7 million — a staggering increase from its 2024 low of just $7.2 million. This represents nearly an 11x growth in under four months, highlighting a surge in capital inflow and protocol adoption.
👉 Discover how blockchain networks with rising TVL often precede major price movements.
Even more telling is the fact that TVL has nearly doubled since its 2025 low, while XLM’s price and market cap have continued to decline. This inverse relationship often signals a divergence between market price and underlying fundamentals — a scenario historically associated with upcoming price corrections or breakouts.
Another strong bullish signal comes from derivatives markets. Data from CoinGlass shows that XLM’s funding rate has turned positive, indicating that long positions now outweigh short bets. In perpetual futures markets, a positive funding rate means longs pay shorts, reflecting dominant bullish sentiment. When this shift persists over time, it often precedes upward price momentum.
Additionally, Santiment’s weighted sentiment metric — which analyzes social media tone, trading behavior, and engagement — has flipped bullish as XLM stabilized near $0.225. This level corresponds with high-volume nodes identified through the “FR Volume Profile” tool, suggesting strong institutional or whale support at these prices.
Rising User Activity Confirms Growing Network Engagement
Beyond capital inflows and sentiment shifts, real user adoption is accelerating on the Stellar network. According to Dune Analytics dashboards, monthly active addresses have been on a steady rise. In May 2025 alone, active addresses reached 263.25K, composed of 173.67K recurring users and 89.59K new entrants.
This growing user base reflects increased utility and trust in Stellar’s infrastructure — particularly its fast settlement times, low transaction fees, and growing DeFi integrations. As more developers build on the network and more users adopt wallets like Scopuly, the foundation for sustainable demand strengthens.
Such organic growth is often more reliable than speculative price spikes because it reflects real-world usage rather than short-term trading hype.
Can XLM Break Out of Its Bearish Pattern?
For much of early 2025, XLM has been confined within a descending channel — a bearish technical formation that typically indicates sustained selling pressure. However, recent price action suggests this pattern may be nearing exhaustion.
After testing multi-month support near $0.225, XLM has held firm and begun consolidating near the upper boundary of the channel for over 45 days. Prolonged consolidation at this level increases the likelihood of a breakout, especially if volume picks up.
A decisive close above the channel’s upper resistance could trigger a retest of the $0.40 psychological level in the short term. Given the current momentum in on-chain metrics and investor sentiment, such a move would not be surprising.
Conversely, failure to break out could lead to renewed selling pressure, potentially pushing prices down toward $0.15 — though current fundamentals make such a drop less likely unless broader crypto markets enter a deep correction.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Is Stellar (XLM) a good investment?
Yes, Stellar presents a compelling long-term investment case due to its robust fundamentals, growing DeFi ecosystem, and increasing real-world adoption in cross-border payments and financial inclusion initiatives.
What could be the maximum XLM price by the end of 2025?
Based on current on-chain trends and market momentum, XLM could reach up to $1.29 by the end of 2025 if bullish conditions persist and broader market sentiment improves.
Could XLM reach $6 by 2030?
Long-term projections suggest that with sustained network growth, increased institutional adoption, and expansion of use cases, XLM may achieve a maximum price of $6.19 by 2030.
Why is TVL rising while XLM price falls?
This divergence often occurs when investors accumulate tokens or deploy capital into DeFi protocols at lower prices, signaling confidence in future appreciation despite short-term weakness.
What does a positive funding rate mean for XLM?
A positive funding rate indicates that more traders are betting on price increases than declines. When sustained, it reflects growing bullish sentiment and can precede upward price movements.
How important are active addresses for XLM’s outlook?
Very important. Rising active addresses indicate real user growth and network utilization — key drivers of long-term value creation in any blockchain ecosystem.
While short-term volatility remains inevitable in any crypto market cycle, the confluence of rising TVL, improving sentiment, expanding user bases, and technical consolidation makes Stellar one of the most watchable altcoins heading into Q3 2025. Investors should monitor both on-chain data and price action closely for confirmation of a breakout — but the early signs are undeniably bullish.
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