Bitcoin’s recent price action has sparked renewed debate among traders and analysts about the sustainability of its rally. After reaching an all-time high near $112,000 in May 2025, BTC has entered a consolidation phase, showing signs of weakening momentum. With key technical indicators flashing caution signals, many are asking: Is Bitcoin headed for another crash?
This article explores the current market dynamics, analyzes critical technical patterns, and evaluates whether a deeper correction toward $85,000 could be on the horizon—similar to past mid-cycle pullbacks in 2019 and 2021.
Resistance at $106,000–$108,000 Threatens Bullish Momentum
Since peaking at $112,000 on May 22, Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range of about $500, failing to build sustained upward momentum. This sideways movement over three weeks suggests growing uncertainty among investors.
A crucial resistance zone lies between $106,000 and $108,000, a level closely monitored by market analysts. Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto analyst, highlighted this range as pivotal for maintaining bullish sentiment. When Bitcoin recently tested $106,000, it was quickly rejected—triggering a wave of long-position liquidations and pushing the price back down to the $104,000–$105,000 range.
This failed breakout mirrors a similar pattern from earlier in June, which preceded a sharp drop toward $100,000. If Bitcoin loses support at $105,000 again, a retest of the $100,000 liquidity zone by late June becomes increasingly likely.
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Such corrections are not uncommon during bull markets. In fact, they often serve to “shake out” over-leveraged traders before the next leg up. Van de Poppe views a potential dip to $100,000 not as a bearish signal but as a strategic buying opportunity, especially if it clears out excessive long positions.
Weekly Bearish Divergence Hints at Deeper Correction
One of the most concerning technical developments is the emergence of a bearish divergence on Bitcoin’s weekly chart.
While BTC/USD has made higher highs in price over recent months, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed lower highs—indicating that upward momentum is weakening. This type of divergence has historically preceded major trend reversals or deep corrections.
For instance, similar RSI divergences appeared ahead of the 2019 and 2021 market peaks. In both cases, Bitcoin eventually corrected by 30% or more before resuming its long-term uptrend.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could retrace toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA), currently sitting around $85,000. This level has acted as strong support during previous bull cycles and may serve as a natural magnet during any mid-cycle correction.
The combination of failed breakouts and weakening momentum increases the probability of such a pullback—especially if macroeconomic conditions turn less favorable or regulatory uncertainty rises.
NUPL Signals Profit-Taking Ahead of Correction
Another powerful on-chain metric reinforcing the bearish outlook is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL).
As of June 14, NUPL stood near 0.5–0.6, a range historically associated with local market tops. This means that a large portion of Bitcoin holders are currently in profit—creating fertile ground for profit-taking.
When NUPL enters this zone:
- Whales and early investors often begin selling.
- Retail traders may FOMO in near the top.
- Market sentiment becomes overly optimistic, increasing vulnerability to shocks.
This exact setup preceded sharp corrections in both 2017 and 2021. In 2017, Bitcoin fell nearly 50% after NUPL peaked above 0.6. A similar drop followed in 2021 after the $64,800 high.
With NUPL approaching these levels again in 2025, many analysts believe a comparable correction is possible—even if the long-term bull market remains intact.
Could Bitcoin Still Reach $150,000 or Higher?
Despite short-term caution signals, not all indicators point downward. In fact, over 30 major market models suggest that Bitcoin’s current bull run could peak at $230,000**. Other analysts project a more conservative but still bullish target of **$150,000 by year-end.
These optimistic forecasts are supported by several fundamental drivers:
- The post-halving supply squeeze.
- Growing institutional adoption.
- Increasing use of Bitcoin as a macro hedge.
- Expanding ETF inflows in major markets.
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Therefore, even if a correction toward $85,000 occurs, it may simply represent a healthy pause within a larger upward trend—similar to the 2019–2021 cycle where BTC dipped below $4,000 before soaring to $69,000.
FAQ: Your Top Bitcoin Price Questions Answered
Q: What causes bearish divergence in Bitcoin’s price?
A: Bearish divergence occurs when price makes new highs but momentum indicators like RSI fail to confirm them. This disconnect suggests weakening buying pressure and often precedes reversals.
Q: Why is $85,000 considered a key support level?
A: The 50-week EMA currently sits near $85,000 and has served as strong support in past bull markets. It's also a psychological and technical convergence point for traders.
Q: How reliable is the NUPL indicator?
A: NUPL has accurately predicted major tops in 2017 and 2021. When over 50–60% of holders are in profit, profit-taking tends to increase significantly.
Q: Is a drop to $85,000 a sign the bull market is over?
A: Not necessarily. Mid-cycle corrections of 30–40% are common in strong bull runs. As long as key support holds and fundamentals remain strong, the uptrend can resume.
Q: Should I sell Bitcoin now to avoid losses?
A: This article does not provide investment advice. Every decision should be based on personal risk tolerance and independent research. Consider using stop-losses or scaling strategies to manage exposure.
Q: Can Bitcoin rebound after a crash?
A: Yes. Historically, Bitcoin has always recovered from major drawdowns and gone on to reach new highs—often within 12 to 18 months post-correction.
Final Outlook: Caution in the Short Term, Opportunity in the Long Term
While Bitcoin’s short-term path looks uncertain—with resistance at $106,000–$108,000 and warning signs from RSI and NUPL—the broader bull market narrative remains intact.
A potential drop to $85,000 would align with historical mid-cycle corrections and could present a strategic entry point for long-term investors. Meanwhile, traders should remain vigilant for volatility spikes and consider risk management tools like hedging or position sizing.
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Ultimately, while a crash-like correction is possible—and perhaps even healthy—it doesn’t negate the possibility of much higher prices down the road. As always in crypto markets: volatility is the price of admission for extraordinary returns.
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