Is It Time to Buy Ethereum (ETH)? Here’s What This Analyst Thinks

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Ethereum (ETH) has seen a modest rebound over the past week, climbing 2.80% amid broader market uncertainty. However, despite this short-term recovery, ETH remains trapped in a bearish trend that began in December. With significant selling pressure from large holders and weakening on-chain metrics, many investors are asking: Is it time to buy Ethereum?

Market analyst Ali Martinez has weighed in with a detailed technical and on-chain assessment, highlighting key price levels that could determine whether Ethereum is nearing a bottom—or facing further downside.

👉 Discover the critical ETH price levels that could signal a major market shift

Ethereum’s Ongoing Downtrend: A Closer Look

Since its peak of $4,100 in December, Ethereum has dropped over 57%, reflecting a sustained correction phase. According to Martinez, this decline has been driven largely by continuous selling from large holders—commonly referred to as "whales."

Data reveals that wallets holding 10,000 ETH or more have decreased by 80 over the past four months. More significantly, so-called "mega whales"—those holding 100,000 ETH or above—have offloaded approximately 130,000 ETH during the same period. This large-scale distribution suggests a lack of confidence among the most informed market participants.

On-Chain Pressure and ETF Outflows

The selling pressure isn’t limited to individual whales. Ethereum spot ETFs have also experienced substantial outflows, with a net withdrawal of $760 million reported last month. This indicates institutional hesitation and reduced demand at current price levels.

Additionally, over 100,000 ETH have been transferred to addresses associated with known sellers—wallets historically linked to exchanges or trading platforms—further signaling bearish sentiment. These movements suggest that investors are positioning themselves for potential downside, possibly to cut losses or rebalance portfolios.

Technical Indicators Suggest Further Downside

Martinez points to several technical patterns that support a bearish outlook for Ethereum:

On the 3-day chart, ETH recently broke below an ascending triangle formation—a traditionally bearish signal. This breakdown implies that the next target could be as low as $1,000, representing a steep decline from current levels.

Another key metric comes from the Ethereum Pricing Bands indicator, which identifies $1,440 as a critical downside target. This would mark a drop of approximately 27.4% from today’s price.

Interestingly, cost basis distribution data aligns with these bearish projections. Currently, ETH is trading above a major support level at **$1,887**, which represents the average cost basis for a large cohort of holders. A drop below this level could trigger cascading liquidations and renewed selling pressure, potentially pushing prices toward $1,440, $1,250, or even $1,000.

"Price action above $1,887 keeps hope alive for bulls—but a close below this level invalidates near-term recovery potential," Martinez noted.

Can Ethereum Bulls Make a Comeback?

Despite the overwhelming bearish signals, Martinez acknowledges that a reversal is still possible—if certain conditions are met.

By analyzing the volume of ETH accumulated at various price levels, he identifies a major resistance zone between $2,250 and $2,610. This range represents a significant supply wall where previous buyers entered the market. For Ethereum to resume an upward trend, bulls must convincingly break through this zone.

A sustained move above $2,610 would not only neutralize the current bearish structure but could also attract new buying interest from traders and institutions alike.

Until then, the path of least resistance remains downward.

👉 See how market cycles could impact your ETH investment strategy

Ethereum Price Overview: Current Metrics

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $1,985, up 1.10% over the past 24 hours and 2.80% over the past week. However, this short-term gain masks a deeper trend: over the past month, ETH has declined by 27.32%.

As the largest altcoin by market capitalization, Ethereum holds a dominant position in the crypto ecosystem with a market cap of $239 billion, accounting for 8.7% of the total cryptocurrency market.

Daily ETH/USD chart at $1,982 | Source: TradingView

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Is Ethereum a good investment in 2025?

While short-term volatility persists, Ethereum remains a foundational asset in the crypto space due to its role in DeFi, NFTs, and smart contracts. Long-term investors should assess macro trends, adoption rates, and network upgrades like future scalability improvements before deciding.

What is the lowest Ethereum can go?

Based on current technical models and on-chain data, key downside targets include $1,440, $1,250, and $1,000. However, a drop below $1,887—the current cost basis support—would increase the likelihood of testing these lower levels.

Why are Ethereum whales selling?

Large holders may be selling due to profit-taking after previous rallies, portfolio diversification, or hedging against broader market risks. Whale movements often reflect strategic decisions based on macroeconomic conditions or regulatory developments.

Can Ethereum recover if it breaks $2,610?

Yes. A confirmed breakout above $2,610 would invalidate much of the current bearish structure and could trigger short squeezes and renewed institutional interest. This level is critical for reversing market sentiment.

How do ETF outflows affect Ethereum’s price?

Sustained outflows from spot ETFs reflect declining investor confidence and reduced demand. This can exacerbate downward price pressure, especially during periods of market uncertainty or risk-off sentiment.

What should I watch for in Ethereum’s price action?

Key indicators include:

👉 Stay ahead with real-time ETH price alerts and expert insights

Final Thoughts: Patience Over Premature Entry

While the temptation to "buy the dip" is strong, especially after a significant correction like Ethereum’s 57% fall from its peak, timing the bottom is notoriously difficult. With whale distribution continuing, ETF outflows persisting, and technical indicators favoring further downside, now may not be the optimal time to enter.

Instead, investors should monitor key levels closely:

Until one of these levels breaks decisively, a wait-and-see approach may be the most prudent strategy.

Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals remain strong—but in the short term, the market is still pricing in risk. Smart investors don’t chase fear or hope; they follow data. And right now, the data suggests caution.