The Bitcoin market in 2025 continues to demonstrate a pattern of wide-range volatility, with prices fluctuating persistently between $50,000 and $70,000. Unlike previous cycles marked by clear upward or downward trends, this phase lacks the traditional momentum typically associated with bull or bear markets. This erratic behavior challenges conventional analysis methods and calls for a deeper look into on-chain metrics to understand where the current cycle truly stands.
Investor behavior has also diverged significantly. Long-term holders (LTHs) remain resilient, maintaining their positions despite uncertainty, while short-term traders capitalize on price swings. Institutional investors, particularly those engaged with Bitcoin spot ETFs, face complex decisions—reallocating from high-fee trusts like GBTC to more efficient ETF structures and reassessing risk exposure amid ongoing volatility.
To cut through the noise, we turn to key on-chain indicators that reveal the underlying health and trajectory of the Bitcoin market.
MVRV Z-Score: Still Below Historical Bull Market Peaks
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is a foundational metric for assessing whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. It compares the current market cap (Market Value) with the Realized Cap—the sum of all bitcoins valued at their last transaction price. This adjustment removes speculative froth and reflects the actual cost basis of existing holders.
The MVRV Z-Score takes this further by measuring how many standard deviations the MVRV ratio is from its historical mean. When the Z-Score spikes into the pink zone, it often signals market tops—times when prices are significantly inflated relative to fundamentals. Conversely, green zones indicate deep undervaluation, often marking accumulation phases.
Historically, major market turning points align closely with Z-Score extremes:
- The 2017 bull peak
- The 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms
- The 2021 bull run top
Yet in 2025, despite Bitcoin surpassing previous all-time highs in nominal terms, the MVRV Z-Score remains below half of prior cycle peaks. This suggests that while prices have risen, the broader market euphoria and overvaluation typically seen at cycle tops have not materialized.
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This muted signal implies that the current rally may still be in a maturing phase rather than an overheated blow-off top. For long-term investors, this could mean further upside potential remains untapped.
Puell Multiple: Mining Revenue Lags Behind Past Cycles
Another powerful cyclical indicator is the Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue relative to its 365-day moving average. The formula is simple: daily miner income (from block rewards and fees) divided by the annual average.
Miners are forced sellers—they must cover electricity, hardware, and operational costs—so their selling pressure directly impacts market supply. When the Puell Multiple spikes into red zones, it indicates miners are earning well above average, often coinciding with price peaks. Green zones suggest distress, where mining becomes unprofitable and weak hands exit.
In early 2025, the Puell Multiple peaked at just 2.4, far below historical highs seen in 2017 (~5) and 2021 (~6). This tepid reading reflects two structural shifts:
- Post-halving supply shock: The 2024 Bitcoin halving cut block rewards in half, reducing miner income.
- Rising operational costs: According to industry reports, average mining costs surged from ~$19,344 per BTC in 2023 to **$51,887** in Q2 2024 due to higher energy and hosting expenses.
As a result, many miners operate near or below break-even levels. While this pressures weaker players, it also reduces net sell pressure over time as inefficient rigs go offline. A constrained supply environment can support stronger price resilience in the medium term.
200-Week Moving Average: Long-Term Support Holds
PlanB’s 200-week moving average (200WMA) is a cornerstone of long-term Bitcoin analysis. It acts as both a dynamic support level and a sentiment barometer across macro cycles.
Past performance shows:
- In 2015 and 2019, price found strong support at the 200WMA after bear markets.
- During the 2020–2021 bull run, each major pullback touched but held above this line before resuming upward momentum.
In 2025, Bitcoin remains firmly above its 200WMA despite months of consolidation. Recent heatmaps show orange-to-red zones returning near the moving average, signaling renewed accumulation activity. PlanB himself noted that from the 2022 low, Bitcoin has already appreciated 4x—and historically, such points precede gains of 7x to 10x over the following 18–24 months.
This technical resilience suggests that the broader uptrend remains intact. Even if short-term corrections occur, the long-term foundation appears solid.
RHODL Ratio: Speculative Frenzy Cooling Down
The RHODL Ratio, developed by analyst Philip Swift, measures the balance between short-term speculation and long-term holding behavior. It does so by comparing UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) held for different durations—specifically, those aged 1 week to 1 month versus those held 1–2 years.
A rising RHODL Ratio indicates increasing dominance of short-term holders—often a sign of frothiness and FOMO-driven buying. When it enters red zones, it has historically preceded major corrections.
Currently, the RHODL Ratio shows a gradual decline after a brief spike in early 2025. This cooling trend suggests that while some speculative interest remains, the market is not experiencing runaway greed. Long-term holders continue to accumulate quietly, absorbing supply without triggering extreme leverage or euphoria.
This subdued environment contrasts sharply with past cycle peaks and supports the idea that we’re still in a transitional phase—not yet at peak sentiment.
LTH/STH Realized Cap Ratio: Is the “Main Wave” Here?
Analyst @Murphychen’s work on Long-Term Holder (LTH) vs Short-Term Holder (STH) realized cap ratios offers insight into ownership dynamics.
Key patterns:
- At bear market lows: LTHs control most wealth (blue line peaks).
- At bull market tops: STHs dominate (red line peaks).
- A crossover—red line crossing above blue—often marks the start of a “main wave” bull phase.
In March 2025, the STH ratio briefly crossed above LTH levels—a potential signal of momentum shift. However, by mid-April, it reversed course. This false breakout likely resulted from ETF-driven FOMO, where institutions and retail buyers absorbed long-held coins in anticipation of sustained rallies.
Without sustained capital inflows, however, this surge fizzled out—mirroring a similar false start in late 2016. The takeaway? While institutional demand via spot ETFs is real and growing, it hasn’t yet triggered a self-sustaining surge in retail participation or broad market mania.
Thus, the true “main wave” may still lie ahead.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Are we still in a bull market if key indicators haven’t peaked?
A: Yes. Many bull markets unfold in phases. We may be in a maturing early-to-mid stage—not yet at peak sentiment or valuation—meaning further upside could still develop as adoption grows.
Q: What does low Puell Multiple mean for Bitcoin price?
A: A low Puell Multiple suggests miner stress but also reduced sell pressure over time as unprofitable miners exit. This can create supply scarcity, potentially supporting future price increases.
Q: Can Bitcoin rally without RHODL Ratio spiking?
A: Absolutely. In mature markets, growth can be driven by institutional inflows rather than retail speculation. A stable RHODL Ratio may reflect healthier, more sustainable demand.
Q: Does ETF adoption change traditional cycle analysis?
A: Yes. Spot ETFs bring steady institutional capital, altering supply-demand dynamics and potentially extending cycle durations. Traditional models need updating to reflect this new reality.
Q: When might the “main wave” begin?
A: Watch for sustained STH dominance, rising MVRV Z-Score (>4), and growing open interest in derivatives. These signals together would suggest broad market participation is accelerating.
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Final Outlook: A New Kind of Bull Market
Despite dramatic price swings in 2025, core on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin has not entered its final blow-off phase. Key indicators like MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, and RHODL Ratio remain well below historical extremes. Meanwhile, structural supports—like the 200-week MA—and growing institutional adoption via spot ETFs point to underlying strength.
We may be witnessing a new breed of bull market: less driven by retail frenzy, more shaped by regulated financial inflows and long-term accumulation. While volatility persists, the data suggests we're not at the peak—but rather in a pivotal phase where informed investors can position themselves for what comes next.
Keywords: Bitcoin market analysis 2025, on-chain data Bitcoin, MVRV Z-Score explained, Puell Multiple Bitcoin, Bitcoin ETF impact, long-term holder behavior