The meme coin market remains as volatile as ever, and PEPE, one of the most recognizable names in the space, is currently facing mounting downward pressure. Trading at $0.0000090, PEPE has already shed 18% of its value over the past four days. While short-term fluctuations are common in the crypto world, a deeper on-chain analysis reveals a more concerning trend: long-term holders (LTHs) are beginning to exit their positions.
This shift in holder behavior could signal weakening confidence and potentially trigger a further 35% price drop, pushing PEPE toward its August 5 low. Below, we break down the two key on-chain metrics pointing to this bearish outlook and explore what it means for the future of the meme coin.
Declining Mean Coin Age Signals Long-Term Holder Activity
One of the most telling indicators of investor behavior is the Mean Coin Age—a metric that calculates the average number of days each PEPE token has remained untouched in wallets across the blockchain. A rising value suggests holders are accumulating and holding, while a decline indicates increased movement, often due to selling or transfers.
Currently, PEPE’s Mean Coin Age stands at 300 days—a 1% drop since the beginning of October. While this may seem like a minor change, in on-chain analytics, even small shifts among long-term holders can carry significant weight. This decline suggests that coins that have been dormant for months or even years are now being moved, likely for profit-taking.
Long-term holders are typically seen as the backbone of a cryptocurrency’s stability. They’re less reactive to short-term price swings and more likely to hold through bear markets. When this group starts liquidating, it often signals a loss of conviction in the asset’s future performance.
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Falling Mean Dollar Invested Age Confirms Profit-Taking Momentum
Another critical metric reinforcing this bearish narrative is PEPE’s Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA). Unlike Mean Coin Age, which treats all coins equally, MDIA weights the age of tokens by their dollar value at the time of acquisition. This makes it a more accurate reflection of when high-value investors bought in—and whether they’re now exiting.
At press time, PEPE’s MDIA sits at 153 days, down 4% since October 1. This downward trend indicates that older, higher-value holdings are being sold off. In other words, investors who bought PEPE at lower prices—some possibly during its early surge—are now cashing out.
This kind of profit-taking among established holders can create a ripple effect. As confidence wanes among long-term investors, short-term holders (STHs), often referred to as “paper hands,” may follow suit. Given that STHs control a substantial portion of PEPE’s circulating supply, their collective sell-offs could amplify downward pressure on the price.
What Could Trigger a 35% Drop?
If selling momentum continues, technical analysis suggests PEPE could retrace significantly. According to Fibonacci Retracement levels, a 35% decline would bring the price down to $0.0000058—a level last seen on August 5.
This level represents a key psychological and technical support zone. A break below it could open the door to even steeper losses, especially if market sentiment turns decisively negative.
However, the opposite scenario is also possible. If long-term holders stabilize their positions and stop selling, combined with renewed buying interest or positive market catalysts, PEPE could reverse course. In that case, the coin might attempt to reclaim resistance at $0.000012, potentially reigniting bullish momentum.
But for now, the data leans bearish.
FAQ: Understanding PEPE’s Current Market Dynamics
Q: What is a long-term holder (LTH) in cryptocurrency?
A: A long-term holder is typically defined as an investor who has held their tokens for more than 155 days. These holders are often seen as more confident in an asset’s long-term potential and less likely to panic-sell during downturns.
Q: Why is Mean Coin Age important for crypto analysis?
A: Mean Coin Age helps analysts gauge investor sentiment. When older coins start moving after long periods of inactivity, it often signals profit-taking or loss of confidence—both bearish signs.
Q: How does profit-taking by LTHs affect PEPE’s price?
A: When long-term holders sell, it increases supply in the market without corresponding demand. This imbalance can drive prices down, especially if short-term holders follow suit out of fear.
Q: Can PEPE recover from a potential 35% drop?
A: Yes. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and capable of sharp rebounds. If buying pressure returns—especially from new investors or institutional interest—PEPE could recover and even surpass previous highs.
Q: What factors could reverse PEPE’s bearish trend?
A: A halt in LTH selling, increased exchange inflows from new buyers, broader market recovery, or positive developments in the meme coin ecosystem could all help restore confidence.
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Final Outlook: Caution Ahead for PEPE Investors
While meme coins like PEPE thrive on hype and community momentum, sustained price growth requires more than just viral attention. On-chain data now shows clear signs that the foundation of PEPE’s recent price stability—its long-term holders—is beginning to erode.
The dual decline in both Mean Coin Age and Mean Dollar Invested Age underscores a growing trend of profit-taking among those who’ve held through volatility. If this behavior accelerates, combined with panic selling from short-term investors, a 35% drop to $0.0000058 becomes increasingly likely.
That said, crypto markets are inherently unpredictable. A single catalyst—such as renewed influencer support, exchange listings, or macroeconomic shifts—could quickly reverse sentiment.
For investors, the key takeaway is vigilance. Monitoring on-chain metrics provides early warning signs that traditional technical analysis might miss. By staying informed and avoiding emotional decisions, traders can better navigate the rollercoaster that is meme coin investing.
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Conclusion
PEPE’s current trajectory points to growing uncertainty among its most committed holders. With both Mean Coin Age and Mean Dollar Invested Age trending downward, the evidence suggests that long-term investors are exiting—potentially setting the stage for a deeper correction.
While a drop to $0.0000058 isn’t guaranteed, the risk is real and supported by data. Investors should remain cautious, keep an eye on holder behavior, and prepare for increased volatility in the weeks ahead.
Understanding these dynamics isn’t just about predicting price—it’s about recognizing shifts in market psychology before they fully manifest on charts. In the fast-moving world of meme coins, that insight could make all the difference.