The cryptocurrency market is showing strong signals of a potential altseason, with Ethereum (ETH) outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) amid a weakening Bitcoin dominance. As capital begins rotating from the flagship cryptocurrency into high-potential altcoins, technical indicators and market sentiment point toward a broader rally across the altcoin ecosystem. With ETH/BTC gaining momentum and key on-chain metrics flashing green, investors may be witnessing the early stages of a new bull cycle for alternative cryptocurrencies.
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Ethereum Gains Strength Against Bitcoin
Over the past 90 days, Ethereum has surged nearly 48%, significantly outpacing Bitcoin’s 31% gain during the same period. This growing divergence suggests increasing investor confidence in Ethereum’s fundamentals and its role as the leading smart contract platform.
More notably, ETH’s value against BTC has climbed over 7% this week alone, reaching 0.02549 BTC per ETH—a 44% increase from its year-to-date low of 0.01766 BTC recorded on April 22. This strengthening ratio is widely regarded as one of the earliest harbingers of an impending altseason, where capital flows aggressively into non-Bitcoin digital assets.
Technically, Ethereum faces immediate resistance at 0.02606 BTC, followed by a more significant psychological and historical barrier at 0.03020 BTC—the lowest closing level observed in December 2020 and March 2021. A sustained breakout above these levels could accelerate buying pressure across major altcoins.
On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bullish crossover above its signal line, reinforcing upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 46—indicating bearish exhaustion and room for further upside without entering overbought territory.
These technical conditions suggest that Ethereum is well-positioned for continued outperformance. Historically, such rallies in ETH/BTC have preceded broader altcoin market rallies, making this phase critical for strategic portfolio positioning.
Bitcoin Dominance Shows Signs of Reversal
One of the most reliable indicators of an upcoming altseason is a sustained decline in Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D). Currently hovering around 64%, BTC.D has pulled back nearly 1% this week, raising concerns about a potential breakdown.
A double top formation visible on the weekly chart, combined with a bearish RSI divergence, increases the likelihood of a bearish reversal. If price action breaks below the long-standing support trendline near 63.11%—the lowest close in May—the decline could extend toward 60.27%, with further downside targeting 55.36%.
Such a drop would free up substantial capital currently locked in Bitcoin, redirecting it into altcoins and amplifying their price movements. In past cycles, drops of this magnitude in BTC.D have coincided with explosive growth in sectors like DeFi, NFTs, and Layer-1 ecosystems.
The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 32, up sharply from 17 on May 30. This index measures the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the last 90 days:
- Below 25: Strong Bitcoin season
- 25–50: Fading Bitcoin dominance, rising altcoin momentum
- Above 75: Full-blown altseason
While the index hasn’t yet reached altseason thresholds, its rapid climb suggests the market is transitioning. A continued rise in altcoin market cap—now exceeding $1.22 trillion excluding Bitcoin—further validates this shift.
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Expert Analysis: Peter Brandt Warns of BTC Risk, Sees ETH Upside
Veteran trader and technical analyst Peter Brandt recently highlighted growing risks in Bitcoin’s price structure, drawing parallels to the 2022 double top reversal that preceded a 75% correction. With BTC trading above $100,000 and showing similar chart patterns, Brandt cautions that history may repeat itself—potentially triggering a major pullback.
Conversely, Brandt has expressed optimism about Ethereum’s trajectory. In a recent post, he noted that ETH completed a bullish range breakout, closing above key resistance at $2,816. This breakout aligns with several bullish technical developments:
- Price closed above the **50% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,746**, derived from the 52-week high ($4,107) to the YTD low ($1,385)
- The MACD triggered a buy signal on the daily chart
- The 50-day EMA is approaching the 200-day EMA, setting up a potential “golden cross”
If bullish momentum holds, Ethereum could target the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $3,525, representing substantial upside potential. Such a move would not only solidify ETH’s leadership among altcoins but also act as a catalyst for wider market participation.
However, a failure to hold above $2,746 could lead to a deeper correction toward the 200-day EMA at **$2,470**, delaying broader altseason momentum.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is an altcoin season?
A: An altcoin season refers to a market phase where alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price growth and trading volume. It typically occurs after a Bitcoin-driven rally when investors rotate capital into higher-risk, higher-reward assets.
Q: How do you know when an altseason is starting?
A: Key indicators include: declining Bitcoin Dominance (below 64%), rising ETH/BTC ratio, strong performance in top altcoins over 90 days, and an increase in the Altcoin Season Index (moving above 25). On-chain data and exchange inflows also provide early signals.
Q: Why does Ethereum often lead altseasons?
A: As the largest smart contract platform, Ethereum serves as the foundation for DeFi, NFTs, and new token launches. Its ecosystem attracts developer activity and investor interest early in market cycles, making it a bellwether for broader altcoin strength.
Q: Can Bitcoin still rise during an altseason?
A: Yes. While Bitcoin may underperform relative to altcoins during an altseason, it doesn’t necessarily decline in absolute terms. Many altseasons occur within an overall bullish crypto market where both BTC and alts rise—but alts rise faster.
Q: What risks should investors watch for?
A: A reversal in ETH/BTC, failure to break key resistance levels, or a resurgence in BTC dominance could delay or cancel an expected altseason. Additionally, macroeconomic factors like regulatory news or Fed policy shifts can impact overall crypto sentiment.
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Final Outlook: Is Altseason Imminent?
While not yet in full swing, multiple technical and on-chain signals suggest the crypto market is entering a transitional phase favorable to altcoins. Ethereum’s outperformance against Bitcoin, weakening BTC dominance, and rising investor appetite for innovation-driven projects all point toward increased altseason probability.
With veteran analysts like Peter Brandt warning of Bitcoin’s vulnerability while highlighting Ethereum’s breakout potential, market participants are advised to monitor key levels closely. A sustained move above $3,000 for ETH or a drop below 63% in BTC.D could serve as confirmation triggers.
For investors, this environment presents strategic opportunities to rebalance portfolios ahead of potential multi-fold gains across select altcoins. Staying informed through real-time analytics and maintaining disciplined risk management will be crucial in maximizing returns during what could be one of 2025’s most dynamic market phases.
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